Kalshi edge calculator
The whole discipline is one subtraction: your probability minus the price you pay, after fees. Enter an honest estimate — not a hopeful one — and see whether the trade clears the floor this toolkit insists on.
In this toolkit's own record, estimates in the 50–85% band predicted 73% and won 44%. Run your number through this row before you size anything.
Why the estimate is the hard part
A calculator cannot tell you whether you are right — only what follows if you are. The measured failure mode in this toolkit was overconfidence: in the 50–85% band, predictions of 73% won 44% of the time. If your estimates carry that bias, every positive number here is fictional. Shrink your estimate before you size anything.
Measure first. Trade second.
The free playbook covers the setup traps. The full guide covers spend control, API drift, the dashboard, the paper-first protocol, edge mirages, and pricing resolution-source markets.