Build & Run an AI Kalshi Bot
The operating manual for the kalshi-ai-trading-bot. What you spend, what the API breaks, what the dashboard really tells you, the protocol that keeps you from blowing up — and how to tell a real edge from a mirage.
Checkout is not live yet — the button links to the repo for now. Watch the repo and you'll see it first.
One-time $49 · no subscription. You get the PDF and its plain-text version, and the free reference pages stay free.
Controlling AI spend
- •The daily budget circuit breaker — and how to set it
- •The ai_max_tokens trap that eats a month of budget in a day
- •Choosing a cheaper OpenRouter model without gutting quality
- •The no-LLM strategy that spends nothing
Surviving Kalshi API drift
- •The *_dollars and *_fp renames, mapped field by field
- •Pricing off the LIVE orderbook, never the stale snapshot
- •The two different 401s and what each one means
- •A step-by-step recovery drill
Reading the dashboard like an operator
- •The risk governor: when the bot is allowed to trade
- •Spotting over-concentration before it blows up
- •The “silently paused” trap
The paper-first protocol
- •Two weeks paper — for real
- •cli edge: prove or disprove your edge (Brier, log-loss, edge vs book)
- •Closing the self-improvement loop with cli policy / cli improve
- •The non-negotiables, written after an 86% drawdown
Telling a real edge from a mirage
- •Why a stored price is not an executable price (measured: 0.68 vs 0.85)
- •Count events, not rows — how “n = 85” was really 4
- •Named events usually have a real catalyst — the worked Anthropic-IPO case
- •Fees set a floor: 91.0% breakeven at 90¢, and the hardest skill: doing nothing
- •The measured map of where money is lost here — 72.1M trades, every price band, both sides
- •Be the maker, and gate it: the one edge the evidence supports, and the bar it must clear
Pricing markets that resolve on a published number
- •The method: find the resolution source, build the series, model the print, forward-score it
- •What the book knows that you don’t — and a 40-point apparent edge it overturned
- •How to score without fooling yourself: count events, and only the disagreements matter
- •The uncomfortable result this toolkit actually got: 4 events and 2 events, no family earned size
Appendix — get-out checklist
- •The six questions to answer before you let it trade unattended
Appendix — troubleshooting the walls
- •18 real symptoms with cause and fix: 401s, missing tables, the silently-paused bot
- •Field drift returning None, negative drawdown, the huge-edge-on-a-thin-market trap
Who this is for
- • You run (or are about to run) this toolkit against real money.
- • You want to measure your own edge instead of believing a claim.
- • You have been bitten by a silent failure and want to stop being.
Who it isn't for
- • Anyone hoping to be handed an edge. This guide does not contain one.
- • Anyone who wants a hosted bot — that is a service, not a PDF.
- • Anyone who will not read the code. The toolkit is forkable, not turnkey.
Questions
Is this a get-rich-quick thing?
No. It is the opposite. The guide is about running the software correctly and measuring honestly. Nothing here promises a profit, and the example strategies lose money on some markets.
Do I need the free playbook first?
It helps. The free Operator's Playbook covers getting connected and staying online. This guide picks up where it stops: spend, API drift, the dashboard, and the paper-first protocol.
What do I get?
A complete PDF (and the plain-text version) — Edition 1.0, October 2026: six chapters plus two appendices, including a 18-row troubleshooting table. Everything is grounded in the real repo commands and field names. No fluff, no affiliate links.
Will it work with my fork?
Yes as long as it is based on the toolkit. Everything is described by the commands and fields you actually run, so a fork that keeps the CLI and client works the same way.
Ready to run it properly?
Get the full guide and stop guessing at spend, API changes, and when it is safe to go live.
Get the guide (checkout coming soon)Not financial advice. Nothing here is guaranteed to make money. Only ever risk money you are fully prepared to lose.